Contemporary Problems of Social Work


Long-term forecasting strategic ustoichivosti development of freight transport enterprises

Автор/Author: Grigorieva S. V.

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Список литературы/References:

1. Afanasev, E. What is foresight? Attempts to define // library/ global/ Prognoz/


2. Belousov D. P., Frolov, I. E. Long-term scientific and technical forecast: methodology,

outlines the technological future development scenarios // foresight, 2008, №3 (7).

3. Belousov D. R., Sukharev Acting, Frolov A. C. Method of mapping technologies in the search

forecasts // foresight, 2012, So 6. № 2. S. 6-16.

4. Gretchenko A. A. Forsythe as an innovative tool for prediction and realization of scientific

and technological priorities // journal of Siberian state aerospace University. M. F. Reshetnev.

2010, № 1.

5. Transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. Approved by the

decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 22 November 2008 No. 1734-R.

6. Chernikov, A. P., Vilver P. Y. Petri Net is the tool of choice of development priorities of the

region //

References in Roman script:

1. Afanas’ev, E. chto takoe Forsayt? Popytki opredeleniya //”biblioteka/ global’nye/

prognoz/ Forsayt/4

2. Belousov D. P., Frolov I. E. dolgosrochnyy nauchno-tehnicheskiy prognoz: metodologii,

opisyvayutsya tehnologicheskie stsenarii budushego razvitiya // Forsayt, 2008, №3 (7).

3. Belousov D. R., Suhareva I. O., Frolov A. S. metod kartirovaniya tehnologiy “ v poiskovyh

prognozah // Forsayt, 2012, tak chto 6. № 2. S. 6-16.

4. Gretchenko A. A. Forsayt kak innovatsionnyy instrument prognozirovaniya i realizatsii

nauchnyh i tehnologicheskih prioritetov // Vestnik Sibirskogo gosudarstvennogo

aerokosmicheskogo universiteta. M. F. Reshetneva. 2010, № 1.

5. Transportnaya strategiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii na period do 2030 goda. Utverzhdeny

postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot 22 noyabrya 2008 g. № 1734-r.

6. Chernikov, A. P., P. Yu. Vil’ver seti Petri-instrument vybora prioritetov razvitiya regiona //

Содержание статьи/Article:

For any country’s economy, which is integrated into the world economy, particularly relevant

are the objectives of the control system development strategic sustainable development of


Structural changes in the economy lead to increased demand for all kinds of transport

services, the need to improve transport infrastructure. Enterprises can operate normally only

provided a quick and quality delivery of the goods.

The main task of the control system of strategic sustainable freight transport enterprises

(GATP) - anticipation and pre-emption of potential threats, leading to loss of motor transport

enterprise competitiveness, does not adhere to the fundamental principles of sustainable

development of the economy.

Providing strategic sustainability development GATP should be aimed not only at preventing

threats, but also on the implementation of complex of measures on preservation of long time

the upward trends expressed by the system of indicators of economic, social and environmental

characteristics of activity of the enterprise taking into account the achievable transport uses.

Thus, strategic sustainability development GATP connected with the prolonged period of

time, during which changes the external and internal environment, there is a correction activity

GATP. In the forecasting process disclosed alternative, positive and negative trends in the

development of GATP, and identifies the conditions under which ensures that the strategic


Unfortunately, not all trucking companies are developing long-term forecasts. The reason for

this is a one-sided view about the adequacy of the planning of economic activity, which should

ensure the economic growth of the enterprise. This applies to economic and technical policy

not to mention social and environmental perspective development.

Therefore, the main task of strategic management of the enterprise becomes the task

of establishing priorities of innovation, as innovation is the element that contribute to

strengthening the competitive position of the enterprise.

The priorities of technological development are formed depending on the stage of

development of a particular company. Thus, in the context of the decline of activity in the

presence of acute financial problems erroneous determination of priorities can lead a company

to bankruptcy. These conditions result in the narrowing of strategic horizons, increases market

uncertainty. This reduces the credibility of the company, because here there is the highest risk

of capital investment.

Practice innovation activities are very diverse and dynamic, but it is possible to identify

some common elements for all enterprises.

Firstly, the most important among these moments is that the choice of priorities for scientific

and technological development are actively involved national, sectoral and territorial authorities.

This is reflected in the development of various programmes for research and technological

development (example: the Federal target program “Development of transport system of Russia

for 2010-2020”). To solve the transport problems of socio-economic development of the Russian

Federation for the period up to 2020 has identified the following priorities:

– acceleration distribution and reduction in transport costs in the economy;

– increased availability of transport services for the population;

– improving the competitiveness of the transport system of Russia on the world market of

transport services;

– improving complex security and sustainable transport system.

Secondly, in the modern world, any company needs to maintain a high level of innovation.

This contributes not only to the economic and financial potential of the company, but also the

susceptibility of innovation by every member of the staff, from the head to the worker that will

allow innovative projects to give high efficiency and reliability.

However, the prioritization process at the level of individual enterprises remains unclear.

No criteria were developed, which allow you to select the priorities. But clearly identified

funding opportunities for projects, and selection of advanced technologies without adequate

assessment of their further application.

Long-term forecasting has a number of specific features, which include the following

characteristics [2, S. 54].

The subjectivity of the forecast is the analysis of the results of action of the major actors (or

accompanied by decisions taken by a specific player). Trends, relatively stable in the medium

term development (3-5 years), not only exhausted, but also problematiziruyut, becoming

derived from the actions of economic entities. Even for such quasi-stationary parameters of

development, as, for example, the structure of production and consumption of basic resources,

it is highly sustainable in the medium term, in the long-term forecast is required to specifically

determine the laws of their change.

Consistency is the key characteristic of a long-term forecast. In addition to the basic

macroeconomic parameters developed a number of specialized assessments for specific sectors

that are dependent on the economic development in General, or, on the contrary, define the

economic landscape in the long term.

Innovativeness. Medium-term forecast, as a rule, does not imply fundamental changes in

the nature of reproductive processes, economic management, positioning in the markets. Over

time, inevitably, the emergence of radical innovations in various sectors of the economy and

society. Long-term prognosis is actually the foresight impact on the economic development of

new factors and trends.

Accounting for indirect impacts. In the long term are crucial factors indirectly affecting the

main indicators of socio-economic development. Manifest-known rule about the advantage of

“indirect strategy”.

It should be emphasized that the priorities of scientific and technical progress at the macro

level, form a separate enterprises of different branches of economic activity. Correctly noted

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in the work of D. P. Belousova, I. E. Frolov [2, S. 60] “the main limitation of the applicability

of micro-level method are the short forecast horizons business in Russia for medium-sized

companies, estimated to be no more than 3-5 years), which negates the possibility of longterm

scientific and technological forecasting. Future development for such companies, either

indefinitely or looks simple “extended present”. The solution to this problem can be the

methodology of technological forecasting, called “foresight”.

The theoretical basis of this methodology are the works of domestic and foreign scientists

in the field of technological forecasting, E. Afanasiev, N. Kalyuzhnova, M. kinen, E. Clayton, I.

Kuzminov, A. C. Sokolov and others.

The most complete understanding of this term has published, E. Afanasiev [1], which allows

to introduce this method of technological forecasting as follows:

– the foresight is a systematic, collaborative process of building a vision for the future, aimed

at improving the quality of receiving at the moment decisions and acceleration of joint actions.

The ideology of foresight comes from the convergence trends of the modern developments in

the field of policy analysis, strategic analysis and forecasting;

– the technology foresight allows to take into account the long-term implications and

opportunities in decision making. Foresight can be used to develop strategies and long-term

planning for the development of regions, municipalities and other territorial entities;

– the foresight is a systematic attempt to look into the long term future of science,

technology, economy and society to identify areas of strategic research and the emergence of

generic technologies, promising to bring the largest economic and social benefits;

– the foresight is an attempt to determine long-term trends and to coordinate on the basis

of their decisions. Foresight has emerged in recent years and most actively used in Europe

to highlight the priorities of contemporary research based on the basic scenarios of the

development of science, technology, society and the economy;

– the foresight is a systematic thinking about the future and the impact on the future.

Thus, the aim of foresight is to determine the possible future, creating a desirable image of

the future and identify strategies to achieve it. Foresight is an independent method of longterm


Foresight as a method of long-term forecasting began in the second half of the twentieth

century. The first method was used by American scientists in the field of defence research and

prospects for security. After the United States it was used in Japan, where long-term prognosis

built using Delphi method, was published in 1971 Further, the method became widespread in

France, great Britain, Austria, Sweden, Korea, China.

The historical approach allows us to distinguish three stages of the evolution of foresight

method. The first stage of technological foresight on the basis of forecasting the prospects of

scientific and technical sphere. The second stage is market-oriented foresight. The third stage -

socio-economic foresight. Modern foresight is a powerful tool for the development of high-tech

production, and not only in the industrial sector.

The scope of the foresight method is extremely versatile. In addition to the global and

international level foresight method can be applied at the regional level, for example, to predict

the trends of a particular company, business strategy, identify the demand for a certain type of

product, etc.

The necessity of using the foresight method for enterprises stems from the following


– the strengthening of intra-industry competition;

– the limitations of public funding;

– the difficulty in defining technological priorities.

Foresight method is necessary in order to improve the decision-making process; to manage

the selection of technologies; to create alternative directions for future development; to

enhance the learning process and better prepared for unforeseen circumstances; to motivate

changes [4].

The methodology of the foresight method combines traditional and new methods of

obtaining expert estimates. When this happens their continuous improvement, which increases

the validity of long-term forecasts of technological development.

Perform predictions using the foresight method goes through several stages:

– the formulation of the problem long-term forecast of technical development;

– the analysis of the status of research and development in this area;

– the formation of expert groups;

– the expert survey (in several stages), the processing results;

– the selection of priority areas taking into account the received information from experts;

– the organization of public discussions of the results of foresight method;

– the approval and use of the results of the foresight method.

The result of the foresight of the method is the achievement of strategic goals that will

indicate the strategic stability of the enterprise in the long term.

Technological development is determined by the efficiency of innovation, resulting in new

services, new technology, management structure. The degree of feasibility of the innovation is


– the policy of renewal of fixed assets;

– the availability of sources of financing innovation.

Hence, the forecasting needs in the priority innovation, investments for their implementation

is the key strategic management of technological development of the company, whose main

objective is the improvement of techniques and technologies that ultimately determines the

amount of revenue and profit of the enterprise.

In the present technological state of the enterprise is determined by the availability of basic

technological capabilities: equipment, machinery, skilled workers and drivers; the ability to

learn, to meet the technical standards, but also to adapt to changes in product and technological

specialization. The achieved level of technology is one of the main factors that determines the

innovative activity of the enterprise.

In recent years, increased understanding of the relationship of technological strategy with

the overall business strategy of many leading domestic and foreign companies. This strengthens

the position of methodological approaches to the formation of the strategy of technological

development of the enterprise.

The factors influencing the choice of strategy of technological development, should

include the technological structure in the present period of economic development, personnel

training, monitoring of foreign technologies, to support domestic producers and respect for

local conditions and regulations. The main factor in technological development are, of course,

personnel are able to formulate a strategic plan technical update of the enterprise on a longterm

perspective taking into account the main trends of development of scientific-technical

progress. This process should be directed to assess the real level of the technological state

of the enterprise and identifying technological priorities of its development. The result of

technological forecasting has become a long-term development plan on the basis of effective

scenario as a means of achieving strategic goals.

The strategic goal of the development of the transport system to address the needs of

innovative socially oriented development of economy and society in competitive and high

quality transport services. The achievement of this strategic goal will be achieved through

the effective development of competitive environment in the transport sector, the creation of

optimal reserves in infrastructure development, achieve the advanced level of development of

engineering and technology, greater attention to social and environmental factors [5].

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To create an effective and competitive transport system, as outlined in the Transport strategy,

you need three basic components:

– the competitive high-quality transport services;

– the high-performance secure transport infrastructure and vehicles that are required to the

extent to which they will provide competitive high-quality transport services;

– the creation of conditions for excess supply of transport services on demand (otherwise,

the competitive environment will not be).

The above objectives should be fully consistent with the strategic goals of technological

forecasting freight transport enterprises. Technology forecast will form a programme of

innovative development of the enterprise and to determine the necessary amounts of investment.

An important step here is the establishment of alternative investment and justification of the

choice of technological development on appropriate criteria.

Transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period till 2030 defines the priorities for

the transition to an innovative variant of development of the transport system. Among these


– the development of a competitive market for transport services;

– the availability of transport services for the population;

– the expansion of the range and improving the quality of transport services on the basis of

application of modern transport, logistics and communication technologies, development of

new forms of organization of the transport process and interaction between modes of transport;

– the fold increase productivity and energy efficiency in transport;

– the integration of transport system of Russia in the Eurasian transport space, developing a

diversified transport links with the world’s economic centers;

– the high geographical mobility of the population;

– the increase of innovative activity of transport companies, radical renewal of the transport

and technical facilities with the development of domestic transport machine-building, the

strengthening of the role of scientific and technical support in the development of the transport


– the growth of the level of professional training and qualification of workers of transport,

the improvement of their material and social support, creation of safe working conditions;

– the reliability and safety of transport systems, including in the sphere of ecology, reducing

the number of accidents, injuries and deaths in traffic accidents;

– the development and application of effective mechanisms of state regulation of the

functioning and development of the transport;

– the improvement of the investment climate in the transport sector.

These priorities allow you to create several scenarios of technological development using

expert judgement on the basis of the overall strategic goals of the enterprise. When developing

scenarios in foresight method using an instrument such as road maps that allow you to present

step-by-step change of technique and technology in the period of long-term forecasting.

The roadmap includes the following basic elements [3]:

– the time axis;

– the layers (levels);

– the «connection»;

– the additional information (background changes, description of participants in the

implementation phase, etc.,);

– the graphical notation (notes, marks, spots, gaps, opportunities, threats);

– the process of moving around the map.

Road map may reflect multiple routes of action, all of which are necessary for the

implementation scenario of the future. Shown in the road map routes include the expected

trends in technology and business.

Fundamental view road map presented in figure 1.





Past Present Future Vision

Figure 1 - Structure of the road map

This scheme maps common in long-term forecasting, where each component expresses

the observed trends, strategic dilemmas and the decision points that allows you to create a

sufficiently large number of development options.

During the implementation of the road map with regard to innovation, enterprise economy

through the development of new markets will be aired on sustainable development in the long

term. This will attract investment in transport, to expand the availability of transportation

services among the population and to obtain additional revenues and profits. Simultaneously

with the development of economy of the enterprise will be addressed and the issues of

environmental protection. Layout a road map for motor transport enterprise is presented in

figure 2.

2012 2015 2020 2025




Technology Internal combustion


Hybrid engine


price toplevels


The availability of transport





New markets


The implementation of environmental-

sky standards

Modern state of the


Figure 2 - Graphical structure of the roadmap of the motor transport enterprise

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All routes in the road map are interrelated and generally help to achieve the strategic

objectives related to the sustainable development of the enterprise. Road map is a useful tool

for modeling, which can, for example, to use Petri nets.

Modeling Petri nets is carried out on the situational level. Define what actions occur in the

system, what condition was preceded by this action, and what conditions will the system after

executing the action. Perform event-driven model in Petri nets describes the behavior of the

system. Analysis of the results may say about what the state was or was not the system, which

States in principle not achievable.

Using modeling various modifications of Petri nets it is possible [6]:

– comprehensively describe the complex processes of interactions;

– to consider all possible, including alternative development processes;

– to display both quantitative and purely logical relationship;

– to simulate different scenarios of the development process, depending on the development

of the system;

– to display not only the ultimate goal of the system functioning, but unwanted or related

processes and to analyze the impact of the processes on the functioning of the system as a


– ability to view the entire management process in the dynamics of the simultaneous flow

of its individual parts;

– a description of the problem control known mathematical apparatus.

Representation of Petri nets is based on two concepts: the event and the condition. The

occurrence of an event manages the state of the system. The system state can be described by

many terms.

In Petri net events correspond to the transitions, and conditions items. Communication

navigation and position are input and output functions. Input function displays the transition

in a variety of positions, called the input positions of the transition. Output function displays

the transition in a variety of positions, called the output positions of the transition.

Graphically Petri net is represented as a bipartite oriented multigraph, which represents

the positions and transitions. The graph has two types of nodes: positions and transitions,

izobrajayuschie 0 and 1, respectively (the position can also be depicted as circles, and transitions

are rectangles). Oriented arcs connecting positions and transitions. An arc directed from the

position of the transition determines the position, which is the input transition. Multiple inputs

in transition are specified multiples of the arcs from the input positions in the transition. The

output position is indicated by the arc from the transition to the position.

Formally, a Petri net is defined by a quadruple of the form N= < P, T, F, H > , where P – is a finite

set of symbols, called positions, P ≠ ∅ ; T – is a nite set of symbols, called transitions, T ≠ ∅ ,

P∩T ≠ ∅; F - input function (a direct function of incidence), F : P×T →{0,1} ; H – is the

output function (the inverse function of incidence), H :T × P →{0,1} . So by the way, the

input function F shows the transition tj in a multiplicity of positions ( ) i j p ∈ F t , and the output

function H shows the transition tj in the number of output positions ( ) i j p ∈ H t . For each

transition jt ∈T , you can define a multiplicity of positions of the transition F(tj) and output

positions of the transition H(tj) as

( ) { ( , ) 1} j i i j F t = p ∈ P F p t = ; i = 1, n , j = 1,m,

( ) { ( , ) 1} j i j i H t = p ∈ P H t p = ; n = P , m = T . (1)

Similarly, for each transition jt ∈T introduces definitions for the set of input transitions of

position F(pi) and the set of output transitions of the position H(pi):

( ) { ( , ) 1} i j j i F p = t ∈T F t p = ; i = 1, n , j = 1,m,

( ) { ( , ) 1} i j i j H p = t ∈T H p t = ; n = P , m = T . (2)

To represent the dynamic properties of the system introduces labelling (marking):

μ : H →{0,1, 2,...} (3)

Marking - assignment abstract objects called tags (chips), the positions of the network, and

the number of labels corresponding to each position may vary.

Bullet network can be described by five species:

Nμ= < P, T, F, H , μ> (4)

and is a combination of Petri nets and marking μ.

Graphically marking is depicted in the form of points, called labels, and is located in the

circles corresponding to the positions of the network.

The functioning of the Petri net is reflected by the transition from marking to marking up

until not received a deadlock. 0 μ : P →{0,1, 2,...} - initial marking (no labels). The movement

of markers occurs in the result of the execution (operation) of the transition under the influence

of external and internal conditions of the implementation process.

The analysis of Petri nets is based on the recognition of a number of properties that

characterize the network.

Temporal Petri net is characterized by the fact that the data is entered delays in the movement

of the markers. The delay can be attributed to transitions or positions.

Stochastic Petri net is characterized by random delays, it is possible the introduction of the

probabilities of triggering the allowed transitions.

Functional Petri net is characterized by the fact that not only reflects the sequence of events,

and processes a data stream. For this, the description of each transition is added to the data

processing algorithm.

A colored Petri net is used when you want to distinguish from each other some groups of

markers. For example, items of different types.

Automata Petri net is a network in which each transition has only one input and one output.

The Petri net is safe if safe all the positions of the network. The network’s position is safe, if

the number of chips in it never exceeds 1.

A Petri net is k-restricted if all of its positions k-limited. The position is k-bounded if the

number of chips in it may not exceed the integer k.

A Petri net is called strictly preserving, if the total number of chips in the network remains


The reachability of Petri Net is to attain the specified labels.

The Petri net is live if all its transitions are live. The transition is called alive if from any state

reachable from the initial one possible transition in any reachable state.

Based on the foregoing description of the contents and properties of the apparatus of Petri

nets, imagine a road map development transportation enterprise in the form of a Petri net and

we verify the correctness of Petri net-based tree dostojevskij.

Events development transportation enterprise are:

1. The development of enterprise (DE).

2. Environment (E)

3. Market (M)

4. Services (S)

5. Technology (T)

6. Modern state of the environment (MSE)

7. The implementation of environmental standards (IES)

8. Competitive advantages (CA)

9. Competitiveness (C)

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10. Investment (I)

11. New markets (NM)

12. The availability of transport services (DTU)

13. Price (P)

14. Reducing toplevels (RT)

15. Revenue (R)

16. The internal combustion engine (DVS)

17. Hybrid engine (HE)

In the network considered all temporary transitions between events (tij), which allows

monitoring of the implementation of the strategy and to achieve the strategic sustainability of

the enterprise in the long term.

Petri net modeling the system of sustainable development of the enterprise, has the form

(Fig. 4):




Ключевые слова/Tags1: strategic stability, long-term forecasting, foresight, road map, Petri nets.